culture, politics, commentary, criticism

Sunday, November 04, 2007
Big Money calls the election for Hillary.

The business newspaper Barron's (sub. req'd.) regularly polls the people who manage the Big Money for pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds, and the wealthy to see what their opinions are on a number of topics.

As you might expect, they are a conservative and wealthy lot so they are quite fond of Bushian tax policy, but they also have enough smarts to distinguish between the military excursion in Afghanistan versus the folly in Iraq.

The most interesting thing is that these largely Republican and wealthy managers view Hillary Clinton's presidency as a fait accompli — a whopping 61 percent said she will win the 2008 election. Also notable is that this conservative group also deservedly flunks George for both energy and healthcare policy.

Economically, there is still trouble ahead: "Tim Call of Capital Management in Richmond, Va., observed that 'peak mortgage defaults do not occur for three years after mortgage origination. Thus, expect to see rising default rates through 2010.'"

Methodology: "The Big Money poll, a survey of professional investors, is conducted twice yearly by Barron's, in the spring and fall, with the help of Beta Research in Syosset, N.Y. Our latest survey drew responses from 112 managers across the U.S., representing a range of investment styles. Many run their own firms, while others manage billions of dollars for mutual-fund complexes, hedge funds, state pension funds and wealthy individuals."

Click on the chart for a clearer view — I have no idea why it's so damn fuzzy.

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