At first glance, terms of the potential reconstruction effort look identical to those of the 1991 war against Iraq, with U.S.-based engineering giants Bechtel Group Inc. (X.BTL), Halliburton Co. (HAL) and others looking like prime candidates to be named prime contractors. But experts say practical and political challenges this time could also cause a larger share of work to flow toward U.K. companies.
"Particularly because our prime minister has gone out on a limb to support the U.S. administration, there is likely to be an expectation among British companies that they would be asked to bid for contracts," said David Claridge, managing director of Janusian Security Risk Management Ltd. in London.
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"Where we would hope the U.S. would look with a favorable eye on U.K. companies is in subcontracting," he said.
The U.K. is so far the only country to provide weapons and soldiers for the planned U.S.-led invasion.
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One recent estimate by Yale University economics professor William D. Nordhaus puts the cost of [Iraqi] reconstruction and nation-building at between $25 billion and $100 billion. Washington's diplomatic isolation may shorten the list of countries willing to help pay those costs, with the U.S. the only nation to outline spending plans.
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Even a short war could bring huge damage to Iraq's airports, railroads, bridges, ports, communications centers and power systems, Rosser said, presenting opportunities for U.K.-based companies with these skills.
U.K. companies were understandably reluctant to speak on the record about the amount of business they expect to gain after any conflict in Iraq.
Among those that have spoken publicly is medical instrument supplier Smith & Nephew Plc (U.SN). Its chief executive, Chris O'Donnell, recently called a surge in war-related demand an unasked for benefit for his industry.
A spokesman for Smith & Nephew said the company would expect demand to rise for bandages, "keyhole" surgery equipment and orthopedic products such as limb implants. He declined to estimate how much additional demand there might be.
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Of these, Amec Plc (U.AME) is a primary beneficiary, not only because it fought oil well fires in Kuwait, but because it has greatly expanded its global work in oil and gas engineering and construction services.
And, according to a senior company official, Amec's relations with the U.S. Department of Defense are "stronger and closer" than ever thanks to the company's clean up and reconstruction of the Pentagon building and the World Trade Center following the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001.
Buttery biscuits for Bush and Blair, and a shroud of political silence for the people of the US and the UK who oppose their manias.
