Vote for your favorite October Surprise. In the reality show of the Bush administration, many questions are emerging. Can Frist or McCain sing a better song of unrequited love? Will Condoleezza achieve the hopes and dreams of her Chevron upbringing? Will anyone else be shot in the face, or will Cheney be voted off the island?

John Dean, yes, that John Dean, has some predictions:

If anyone doubts that Bush, Cheney, Rove and their confidants are planning an "October Surprise" to prevent the Republicans from losing control of Congress, then he or she has not been observing this presidency very closely.

What will that surprise be? It's the most closely held secret of the Administration.

How risky will it be? Bush is a whatever-it-takes risk-taker, the consequences be damned.

One possibility is that Dick Cheney will resign as Vice President for "health reasons," and become a senior counselor to the president. And Bush will name a new vice president - a choice geared to increase his popularity, as well as someone electable in 2008. It would give his sinking administration a new face, and new life.

The immensely popular Rudy Giuliani seems the most likely pick, if Giuliani is willing. (A better option for Giuliani might be to hold off, and tacitly position himself as the Republican anti-Bush in 2008.) But Condoleezza Rice, John McCain, Bill Frist, and more are possibilities.

Bush's second and more likely, surprise could be in the area of national security: If he could achieve a Great Powers coalition (of Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and so on) presenting a united-front "no nukes" stance to Iran, it would be his first diplomatic coup and a political triumph.

But more likely, Bush may mount a unilateral attack on Iran's nuclear facilities - hoping to rev up his popularity. (It's a risky strategy: A unilateral hit on Iran may both trigger devastating Iran-sponsored terrorist attacks in Iraq, with high death tolls, and increase international dislike of Bush for his bypass of the U.N. But as an active/negative President, Bush hardly shies away from risk.) Another rabbit-out-of-the-hat possibility: the capture of Osama bin Laden.

If there is no "October Surprise," I would be shocked. And if it is not a high-risk undertaking, it would be a first. Without such a gambit, and the public always falls for them, Bush is going to lose control of Congress. Should that happen, his presidency will have effectively ended, and he will spend the last two years of it defending all the mistakes he has made during the first six, and covering up the errors of his ways.

I vote for Option C: attacking Iran.

It's expensive but rewarding for cronies, idiotically wrong-headed, extremely dangerous, and a complicated cocktail of class and religious warfare — and perfectly fits the pattern.

{ 9:44 AM }

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Why we invaded Iraq. With idiots like Ann Schue, democracy is doomed (WSJ, page 1):

Ann Schue used to cherish the time she spent alone in her 2003 Ford Expedition during her 90-minute morning commute to her job at the University of Chicago. Nestled in heated leather seats, she planned her day while listening to the news.

Not anymore. Massive construction work on one of Chicago's main highways has forced her to trade the peace of her sport-utility vehicle for the clatter and crowds of a double-decker commuter train.

"This was a very, very big step for me," says Ms. Schue, 42 years old, who had never been on a train in her life before she recently started taking the Metra rail service. "I'm still very...," she says, choking up, then pausing to compose herself. "I miss my car."

Choking up? Ninety-minute commute? Ford Expedition? Never been on a train at the age of 42?

American adulthood has become the most infantile form of human life on the planet.

You may be wondering, what is Ann Schue's hard-driving profession that she so desperately needs her heated leather seats for three hours a day?

"Animal-health technician." That's right — she cleans up poop. So riding on a train is "very, very big step" for her.

Pity her. Feel her pain. Wish her the best. Then cry for America.

{ 8:42 AM }

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Bush: "I invented the iPod."

{ 1:02 PM }

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Observation. Watching Caitlin Flanagan on Stephen Colbert last night was like watching two persona comics in a hall of mirrors. Neither could out-shtick the other, like a pointless game of one-upsmanship between Gilbert Gottfried and Pee Wee Herman.

{ 10:30 AM }

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It's the oilopoly, stupid. "Increases in the 'spot' market price of crude oil -- which is the highest price a major oil company would pay for crude oil -- accounted for only 12 cents per gallon [of rising gasoline prices]. California's percentage sales tax increased fuel prices by another four cents per gallon. More than 40 cents of the 60-cent increase in gasoline prices over 3 1/2 months is attributable to increased refinery and marketing profit margins for the oil companies." — The Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights

{ 10:14 AM }

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Also known as "concentration camps." KBR, the Halliburton subsidiary recently reprimanded for gross overcharging in its military contracts in Iraq, won a $385 million contract to build large-scale detention centers in case of an "emergency influx" of immigrants.

{ 3:15 PM }

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Amazing coincidences continue to drive American economic life. On the one hand we have a healthcare insurance monopoly:

Consolidation among health insurers is creating near-monopolies in virtually all reaches of the U.S. - with the most dominant firms grabbing more market share by several percentage points a year - according to a study released Monday.

Data from the American Medical Association shows that in each of 43 states, a handful of top insurers have gained such a stronghold that their markets are considered "highly concentrated" under Department of Justice guidelines, often far exceeding the thresholds that trigger antitrust concerns.

The study also shows that in 166 of 294 metropolitan areas, or 56%, a single insurer controls more than half the business in health maintenance organization (HMO) and preferred provider networks (PPO) underwriting.

And on the other hand we have the totally unrelated phenomenon of this executive's record-breaking payday (WSJ):

Today, the 58-year-old Dr. [William] McGuire is chief executive officer of UnitedHealth Group Inc., one of the nation's largest health-care companies. He draws $8 million a year in salary plus bonus, enjoying perks such as personal use of the company jet. He also has amassed one of the largest stock-options fortunes of all time.

Unrealized gains on Dr. McGuire's options totaled $1.6 billion, according to UnitedHealth's proxy statement released this month. Even celebrated CEOs such as General Electric Co.'s Jack Welch or International Business Machines Corp.'s Louis Gerstner never were granted so much during their time at the top.

Dr. McGuire's story shows how an elite group of companies is getting rich from the nation's fraying health-care system. Many of them aren't discovering drugs or treating patients. They're middlemen who process the paperwork, fill the pill bottles and otherwise connect the pieces of a $2 trillion industry.

Patients! Bah! Let them eat deductibles!

The Marie Antoinettes of the American healthcare system need to have their heads checked. We should offer to help.

{ 9:46 AM }

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Martha Stewart went to jail for $220,000. So why should Jeff Skilling get off for 70 times as big a return on his insider investment — $15,500,000:

[Enron Task Force chief Sean] Berkowitz also quizzed Skilling about his attempt to sell 200,000 shares of Enron on Sept. 6, 2001, which was put off because his broker was concerned Skilling was still considered an insider after quitting on Aug. 14.

Berkowitz prodded Skilling about whether he was aware at the time of a letter questioning Enron's finances written by executive Sherron Watkins, $2.2 billion in pending writedowns or that the company was in jeopardy because its Raptor hedging structures could unwind if the share price kept dipping. All could be considered illegal inside information if used to dump shares.

Skilling said he knew about none of it, and that his understanding was that the Raptors would be in trouble only if the share price went below $20. He did sell 500,000 shares on Sept. 17 for around $31 each, citing the terrorist attacks.

Also, it's unseemly for an ex-CEO to sell shares out of concern for the 9/11 attacks. On 9/6, that is.

{ 4:45 PM }

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Harbinger of things to come? Former Illinois governor George Ryan is a Republican who was indicted by Patrick Fitzgerald of Plamegate fame.

Two hours ago Ryan was found guilty on all counts that as secretary of state he steered state business to cronies in return for vacations, gifts and other benefits for himself and his family.

{ 12:56 PM }

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How to blow (another) $4 billion. "In a blow to the United States' anti-drug campaign here, which cost more than $4 billion, new White House estimates indicate that Colombia's coca crop expanded by nearly 21 percent last year."

{ 2:41 PM }

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